Stay or go? Six big-name MLB trade candidates and whether their team should deal them (2024)

We all want a blockbuster. But eye-popping, jaw-dropping blockbusters are increasingly rare. By now, fans should be familiar with the catchphrases team officials use as excuses, heaven forbid they trade their Precious Prospects™ and do something big:

Clubs want to protect their “years of control.” Don’t want to “mortgage the future.” Prefer to build a “sustainable contender.”

For those reasons and others — let’s not forget, “I want to keep my job” — many team executives, almost by default, are risk-averse.

San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller is an exception. So is his northwest spirit animal, Seattle Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto. Most other buyers proceed with extreme caution. And some sellers, quite reasonably, would rather keep their top players than simply churn talent, year after year.

Here is a look at the decisions teams face with six trade candidates, and recommendations on whether those players should stay or go:

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

In a trade market short on aces, Skubal, 27, is a logical target for teams urgently seeking rotation help. The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers fit that description. So do the Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros and Padres. A number of other clubs, including the Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves, are looking, too.

The Tigers, then, figure to field calls on Skubal, simply acting out of due diligence. But after seven straight losing seasons, they’re finally showing life. They’ve won 11 of their last 14 games. Young hitters such as second baseman Colt Keith and designated hitter Justyn-Henry Malloy are maturing. And now they’re going to trade a pitcher who is a leading Cy Young Award contender and under club control at projected below-market salaries for two more seasons?

The only reason to do it would be the obvious reason — a fear of Skubal getting hurt. That’s a fair concern with seemingly every pitcher on the planet breaking down, and Skubal’s health history isn’t exactly pristine. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022 that sidelined him for nearly a year. So, the idea of trading him for top position-player prospects is not outrageous.

Still.

The Tigers aren’t getting six years of Jackson Holliday for two-plus of Skubal. They are not a woe-is-me, small-market outfit, not when they carried top five payrolls under the late Mike Ilitch from 2012 to ‘17. And, after opening the season with the 25th-ranked payroll, they should be ready to spend again soon.

Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, so a contract extension is unlikely. No matter. The Tigers play in the improving but still relatively weak AL Central. With Skubal, they stand a chance of returning to the postseason before he becomes a free agent. Without him, they would remain on the same hamster wheel they’ve been riding for nearly a decade.

Stay or go? Stay.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays, known here as the Paper Tigers, are indicating to teams that they want to keep Guerrero and compete in 2025. Interesting take, considering this wonderful roster they’ve assembled is massively underachieving and 0-6 in the postseason this decade.

The New York Mets aren’t trading Pete Alonso. The Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t trading Christian Walker. Guerrero might be the top slugger available in a thin market — yes, better than the Chicago White Sox’s Luis Robert Jr., who at 26 is a year older and not nearly as durable. Guerrero has missed just 10 games the past five seasons.

The Jays want to compete in ‘25? In the powerful AL East? Thirty-something veterans such as outfielder George Springer and righties Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt will be a year older. Guerrero, shortstop Bo Bichette and outfielder Daulton Varsho will be more expensive. And Guerrero and Bichette, neither of whom has agreed to an extension, will be almost certain to depart as free agents at season’s end.

The Blue Jays can try to “thread the needle” — more exec-speak! — by maybe trading Bassitt along with potential free agents such as left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, righty reliever Yimi García and catcher Danny Jansen. If they move Guerrero, they might as well trade others under club control through 2025 and beyond, and completely tear down.

Such a maneuver would be a concession of failure by the front office, but so be it. Before the season, The Athletic’s Keith Law rated the Jays’ farm system 20th in the majors. This season should be the last hurrah for this group, not the next one. Time to retool.

Stay or go? Go.

Mason Miller, Oakland A’s

Some rival executives are exasperated about Oakland’s seeming reluctance to trade Miller, their 100 mph closer. Miller, 25, is a reliever on a last-place team. A reliever who last season missed nearly four months with an elbow injury. A reliever whose value might never be higher, and could break at any moment.

Fair points, to say the least. But the A’s, though not nearly as far along as the Tigers, believe they are making progress. After starting the season 30-56, they’re 10-6 in July. And while small-sample warnings apply, they entered Monday leading the majors this month in runs per game.

It’s not just designated hitter Brent Rooker and left fielder Miguel Andujar putting together quality at-bats. Shea Langeliers is tied with the Mariners’ Cal Raleigh for the most homers at catcher, and shortstop Max Schuemann, first baseman Tyler Soderstrom, center fielder JJ Bleday, and right fielder Lawrence Butler are showing encouraging signs as well.

The players, manager Mark Kotsay and front office, all tired of losing, want to keep pushing forward. Miller and Rooker, their two most coveted trade candidates, are under control for five and three more seasons, respectively. Even the A’s generally refrain from trading players with such little service time. And if they act before the deadline, how will they find replacements? Free agents will come to Sacramento if the A’s offer the most money, but it won’t be their first choice. And we’ll believe the team’s promised payroll increase when we see it.

Miller was the A’s lone All-Star. As we reported in May, a team that wants him likely would need to give up a young player of comparable ability, or a substantial package for multiple youngsters who could be part of the A’s future. At one point, the A’s asked the Padres for Jackson Merrill, according to a source briefed on the discussions. The Padres said no.

The threat of injury might depress the return for Miller in a trade, but top relievers always are in demand at the deadline. The risk of keeping Miller outweighs any difficulties that might arise from moving him. The A’s might not get the equivalent of Merrill, but they need to build a rotation, and trading Miller for a top pitching prospect would help in that regard.

Stay or go? Go.

Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer confirmed Monday the team will focus on 2025 and beyond at the deadline, as The Athletic explained in an earlier story. The Cubs will be “opportunistic” — another exec buzzword! — but they might be even less motivated to trade Steele than the Tigers are with Skubal. At least, they should be.

Here’s a franchise that for years has struggled to develop starting pitching. Steele, a fifth-round pick in 2014, began to change that narrative last season, producing a 3.07 ERA in 173 1/3 innings. A strained left hamstring he suffered on Opening Day kept him out until May 6, but he since has returned to form.

Could the Cubs extract a big return for Steele in a market in which the most attractive available starter, White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet, might need to pitch in relief this season to limit his innings? Sure. Steele has three additional years of club control remaining, one more than Skubal. But if the Cubs’ focus is 2025, how would they replace Steele as their ace?

As a high-revenue team, the Cubs should try to sign Steele to an extension before even thinking about moving him. The standard warnings would apply. Steele underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, and heaven knows what other arm maladies might await him. But he is the rarest of commodities in baseball, a pitcher to build around.

Stay or go? Stay.

Luis Robert Jr., White Sox

Temptation!

Robert, 26, is quite the intriguing trade candidate, a five-tool center fielder who is under club control for three more years at seemingly reasonable salaries — $15 million, $20 million and $20 million. But the White Sox, according to sources briefed on their conversations, believe prospective suitors might make better offers for Robert in the offseason than they will be at the deadline.

The reason? Robert’s struggles to stay on the field.

Only once in the previous three seasons did Robert appear in more than 98 games — in 2023, when he hit 38 homers, stole 20 bases and finished with an .857 OPS. He followed that by missing nearly two months early this season with a right hip flexor strain. To reach 100 games, he will need to appear in 53 of the White Sox’s final 60 contests. Few would bet the over.

Here’s another problem: Since returning on June 4, Robert has not been the offensive dynamo he was last season, batting only .235 with a .325 on-base percentage. He is hitting for power, as evidenced by his nine homers, and running well, as evidenced by his 11 successful stolen-base attempts. But if he regains his 2023 mojo and sustains it through the end of the season, he will be in higher demand this winter.

Granted, Robert might get hurt again. But even if that happens, the White Sox would have numerous other opportunities to move him. With a position player, even one as frequently injured as Robert, it’s worth taking that chance.

Stay or go? Stay.

Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers

If the defending World Series champions aren’t close to selling, they should be.

Their playoff odds are down to around 10 percent. Most of the available evidence suggests this is not their year. And considering the depths of their offensive struggles, they should not count on the expected returns of Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom to change that.

Eovaldi, 34, is 57 innings shy of vesting his $20 million player option for next season, but that contractual twist should be only a minor concern. If he stays healthy enough to guarantee that $20 million, he might prefer to decline the option and become a free agent. Or, he could use the option as leverage to negotiate an extension with the Rangers for more guaranteed money.

Generally when teams trade players, it greatly reduces the chances of a reunion in free agency; the players, if they aren’t resentful over getting moved, at least become more open-minded to other clubs. Eovaldi, though, might be an exception. He has a strong relationship with Rangers GM Chris Young. And he enjoys pitching relatively close to his home in Alvin, Texas, a suburb of Houston.

Consider this as well: Among the potentially available starting pitchers, Eovaldi is by far the most proven in October. His 3.05 ERA in 79 2/3 postseason innings will appeal to contenders, several of whom (Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers) he pitched for previously.

Stay or go? Go.

(Top photo of Tarik Skubal: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)